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时隔不到半年，日本再发“特大地震”警告：概率升至80%_我的网站

A |     (ECNS) – Suifenhe, a long-established border port for trade with Russia in Heilongjiang Province, reported strong growth in vehicle exports on Saturday, shipping 46,900 vehicles between January and July 2026, up 119.2% year on year.     Executives at companies based in the zone reported a sharp rise in visiting clients, with many corporate buyers from Russia's Far East and Siberia crossing the border to choose vehicles in person. Local vehicle registration authorities have shortened processing times, allowing buyers to inspect cars and complete the paperwork in a single day.        The zone now has a dedicated 30,000-square-meter vehicle yard and bonded maintenance workshops in operation, letting large consignments be stored on site under bonded arrangements. A model combining bonded display with guaranteed clearance on exit has also taken effect, so buyers can inspect vehicles and place orders without leaving the park.        Policy support, including a pilot scheme for used-car exports and free trade zone measures, has combined with expanded China-Russia visa exemptions to make travel easier for overseas buyers. Suifenhe Customs and border inspection authorities have also streamlined clearance, offering customs processing, inspection, and release around the clock and on demand.    Several departments have set up a one-stop service platform. The full logistics cycle, from a vehicle entering the zone to delivery at a Russian overseas warehouse, now takes as little as 10 days, and logistics costs are 30% lower than through conventional channels.    (By Helen Mo & intern Xu Wenda)                    。    据日本共同社16日报道，日本政府地震调查小组15日警告称，未来三十年内南海海槽发生“特大地震”（即8级及以上）的概率已经提升至80%。其中，北海道的根室市沿岸及宫城县沿岸发生“特大地震”的可能性更高。这是日本时隔不到半年再发“特大地震”警告。去年8月，日本宫崎县附近海域发生7.1级地震后，由于担心影响附近的南海海槽，日本气象厅发布了有史以来的首个巨大地震警报。专家团队预计，若日本南海海槽再发生大地震，导致的伤亡人数最高将超过30万。（报道链接：日本首次发布“巨大地震警报”，首相取消外访行程）去年8月，宫崎县附近海域发生7.1级地震后，一处坍塌的房屋 日本地震专家每年一月都会重新计算发生特大地震的概率，自2018年至今，这一概率一直维持在70%-80%之间。

B | 据《朝日新闻》报道，南海海槽发生“特大地震”的概率以每年不到1%的幅度逐年递增，今年调查小组推算出的概率为75%-82%，四舍五入后得出了“80%”这个数字。

C | 日本政府地震调查小组组长平田直志（音译）在新闻发布会上解释称，这一概率意味着该国任何时候发生地震都不足为奇，“我们希望民众能时刻准备好。”平田直志称，自2024年1月日本能登半岛发生6.0级地震以来，该国已经发生过多次震级在6级以上的地震。“大家需要提高警惕，地壳活动可能将持续活跃一段时间。

D | ”来自日本政府地震调查研究推进本部的数据显示，过去1400年间，南海海槽每隔100到200年就会发生一次“特大地震”，最近一次发生在1946年，当时整个日本都有震感。

E | 不过，也有地震学家对“日本政府地震调查小组定期发布地震概率预测”的做法表示反对。“地震不会按照周期性发生，地震的发生是不可预测的。”东京大学名誉教授、地震学家罗伯特·盖勒批评称，这种根据过往地震频率预测未来地震的做法毫无意义。红星新闻记者 黎谨睿编辑 杨珒 责编 魏孔明（下载红星新闻，报料有奖！）。

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